Standard Chartered: stablecoin turnover has doubled and changes the forecast to $2 trillion

🔄 The standard scenario is breaking: the turnover of stablecoins has doubled and is changing the rules of the game

Analysts Standard Chartered recorded an atypical trend in the stablecoin market: the velocity of stable coins - the frequency of ownership changes has doubled in the last two years. According to the head of digital asset research at the bank Jeffrey Kendrick, tokens on average change owners about six times a month, which contradicts previous models that assumed the stability of this indicator.

This is not just a technical metric - it's a signal of a fundamental shift in how digital dollars are integrated into the global financial system.

🔑 What is velocity of circulation and why is it important?

The velocity of circulation is a classic macroeconomic indicator that reflects how often a unit of money goes through transactions over a certain period. For stablecoins, this indicator takes on a new dimension:

🔹 Low speed: the token lies in the wallet as a means of saving (typical for developing markets with high inflation);
🔹 High speed: the token is actively used in calculations, DeFi protocols, AI payments - as a full-fledged means of payment.

Doubling the indicator means: stablecoins are increasingly working as a digital dollar in motion, not as a digital safety cushion.

🎯 Drivers of the shift: from trading to AI payments

Kendrick associates acceleration with the evolution of use cases. If before stablecoins were mainly used for:

crypto trading (pairs on exchanges);
savings in countries with unstable fiat currency;
cross-border transfers,

now there are fundamentally new scenarios:

✅ AI agents and machine payments: autonomous systems use stablecoins for micro-payments between services;
✅ Alternative to TradFi infrastructure: corporate calculations, salary projects, B2B payments;
✅ Programmable money: smart contracts automate capital flows with zero human involvement.

⚖️ USDC vs USDT: two worlds, two speeds

Important nuance: acceleration of turnover is unevenly distributed between issuers:

🔹 USDC (Circle): the main driver of the velocity of circulation growth - the token is actively used in DeFi, institutional calculations and new AI scenarios;
🔸 USDT (Tether): maintains dominance in developing markets as a savings tool - there the velocity of circulation remains low, stable.

This is a fundamental difference: Standard Chartered emphasizes that unstable velocity of circulation reflects new, additional demand, not a replacement of old scenarios.

📊 Impact on the $2 trillion forecast: the paradox of efficiency

Acceleration of turnover creates an interesting paradox for Standard Chartered forecasts:

The bank's base forecast: stablecoin capitalization will reach $2 trillion by 2028 (now $315.5 billion, growth of ~6.3 times).

Economic logic:

If the velocity of circulation is constant - growth in transaction volume requires proportional growth in issuance;
If the speed is growing - the same volume of transactions can be serviced by a smaller number of tokens.

If the indicator remains constant, transaction growth will create demand for more stablecoins. If it increases - this will not happen, all other things being equal, Kendrick summarizes.

This means: the $2 trillion forecast may be conservative if current trends continue, or excessive, if the speed continues to grow exponentially. In any case, the metric requires a review of models.

🏦 Macro effect: demand for treasury bills and outflow of deposits

The growth of stablecoin capitalization has direct consequences for traditional finance:

🔹 Demand for T-bills: issuers place reserves in US Treasury bills - by 2028 demand could reach ~$1 trillion, strengthening the status of stablecoins as a quasi-government financial instrument;
🔹 Outflow of bank deposits: Standard Chartered previously estimated this effect at $500 billion capital moves from traditional banks to digital dollars due to higher returns and liquidity;
🔹 Transformation of global liquidity: stablecoins are becoming a parallel monetary layer, competing with bank reserves.

🌍 Context: recognition from Wall Street

Standard Chartered's optimism is shared by other influential market players. In March, legendary macro investor Stanley Druckenmiller (former manager of Duquesne Capital) called stablecoins the future of global payments, highlighting their potential to displace SWIFT and correspondent banking.

This signals: stablecoins have moved from the crypto-niche category to the systemic financial trend category, which is tracked by the world's largest banks.